WANG Zhe 1,2 , LI Na 1,2 , BAO Yunli 1,2 , TANG Hairu 1,2 , ZHENG Ying 1 , YU Xiaohui 1
  • 1. Department of Gastroenterology, the 940th Hospital of Joint Service Logistics Support Force of Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
  • 2. The First Clinical Medical College, Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
YU Xiaohui, Email: yuxiaohui528@126.com
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Objective To analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019 and forecast its change in the next 10 years. Methods The Global Burden of Disease database 2019 was used to analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time variation trend. A time series model was used to predict the burden of digestive diseases attributable to smoking over the next 10 years. Results In 2019, there were 12 900 deaths from digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China, with a DALY of 398 600 years, a crude death rate of 0.91/100 000 and a crude DALY rate of 28.02/100 000. The attributed standardized mortality rate was 0.69 per 100 000, and the standardized DALY rate was 19.79 per 100 000, which was higher than the global level. In 2019, the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of males were higher than those of females (1.48/ 100 000 vs. 0.11/ 100 000, 38.42/ 100 000 vs. 293/100 000), and the standardized rates of males and females showed a downward trend over time. In 2019, both mortality and DALY rates from digestive diseases attributed to smoking increased with age. ARIMA predicts that over the next 10 years, the burden of disease in the digestive system caused by smoking will decrease significantly. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking showed a decreasing trend in China, and the problem of disease burden is more serious in men and the elderly population. A series of effective measures should be taken to reduce the smoking rate in key groups. The burden of digestive diseases caused by smoking will be significantly reduced in the next 10 years.

Citation: WANG Zhe, LI Na, BAO Yunli, TANG Hairu, ZHENG Ying, YU Xiaohui. Analysis and model prediction of the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2023, 23(11): 1247-1252. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202305138 Copy

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