Trend of disease burden and incidence prediction of type 2 diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

SHAO Zicong ¹ , FAN Yuexing ¹ , DA Zhenqiang ² , LI Wei ² , YU Shuxia ² ,  LI Xiuxia ¹ ,  MA Li ¹

1. School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
2. Medical Department, Gansu Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Lanzhou 730050, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

LI Xiuxia, Email: lixiuxia@lzu.edu.cn; MA Li, Email: ml@lzu.edu.cn

Keywords：

Type 2 diabetes related chronic kidney disease; Disease burden; Annual percent change; Disability-adjusted life years

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202501143

Video：

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Objective To analyze the epidemiological trends and current status of disease burden of type 2 diabetes related chronic kidney disease (CKD-T2D) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future trends. Methods This study was based on the global burden of disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database to obtain the disease burden data of CKD-T2D in China, including the data of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and use the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the change trends until 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate of CKD-T2D in China showed an overall upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate showed an overall downward trend, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) being 0.04%, ‒0.04%, ‒1.11% (P<0.05). Moreover, CKD-T2D in the whole country presented the characteristics of high incidence, high mortality and high DALY burden in the elderly population. From 2022 to 2035, all disease burden indicators of CKD-T2D in China are expected to show an overall downward trend. It is expected that the standardized incidence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate will drop to 16.21/100 000, 4.62/100 000 and 99.35/100 000 respectively in 2035. The overall decline of each indicator in the female population in China is greater than that in the male population. Conclusion The prevention and treatment situation of CKD-T2D in China is severe, the burden caused by disability is relatively heavy and the burden of male and elderly populations is particularly heavy.

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1. Saran R, Robinson B, Abbott KC, et al. US renal data system 2016 annual data report: epidemiology of kidney disease in the united states. Am J Kidney Dis, 2017, 69(3 Suppl 1): 7-8.
2. The International Diabetes Federation. IDF diabetes atlas, 10th edition R. Belgium: The International Diabetes Federation, 2021.
3. Sinha SK, Nicholas SB. Pathomechanisms of diabetic kidney disease. J Clin Med, 2023, 12(23): 7349.
4. Xu Y, Lu J, Li M, et al. Diabetes in China part 1: epidemiology and risk factors. Lancet Public Health, 2024, 9(12): e1089-e1097.
5. GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2023, 402(10397): 203-234.
6. Pan X, Lin X, Huang X, et al. The burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease in China from 1990 to 2019. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 2022, 13: 892860.
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National diabetes statistics report, 2022: estimates of diabetes and its burden in the United States R. Atlanta, GA: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022.
8. Nawata KJH. Estimation of diabetes prevalence, and evaluation of factors affecting blood glucose levels and use of medications in Japan. Health, 2021, 13(12): 1431-1451.
9. GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222.
10. The Lancet None. ICD-11. Lancet, 2019, 393(10188): 2275.
11. GBD Chronic Kidney Disease Collaboration. Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017. Lancet, 2020, 395(10225): 709-733.
12. Bikbov B, Perico N, Remuzzi G, et al. Disparities in chronic kidney disease prevalence among males and females in 195 countries: analysis of the global burden of disease 2016 study. Nephron, 2018, 139(4): 313-318.
13. 农晓鑫, 韦盼盼, 李畅, 等. 1990-2019年中国糖尿病肾病患病流行特征分析. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(11): 1950-1955.
14. 唐璇璇, 董邓波, 邹圣强, 等. 1990-2019年中国糖尿病肾病疾病负担分析及发病预测研究. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(13): 2336-2341,2392.
15. 张玉静, 韩布新. 影响长寿的生物、心理、行为与社会因素. 中国临床心理学杂志, 2016, 24(4): 741-746,770.
16. 国家糖尿病防治规划纲要起草小组. 1996-2000年国家糖尿病防治规划纲要. 中国公共卫生管理, 1996, (2): 123-125.
17. 中华医学会糖尿病学分会. 中国糖尿病防治指南(试行本). 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2004, (6): 283-285.
18. 中华医学会糖尿病学分会. 中国2型糖尿病防治指南(2020年版). 中华糖尿病杂志, 2021, 13(4): 95.
19. 田慧, 李春霖, 纪立农. 中国老年2型糖尿病防治临床指南(2022年版). 中国糖尿病杂志, 2022, 30(1): 2-51.
20. Li J, Zhang X, Zhang M, et al. Urban-rural differences in the association between occupational physical activity and mortality in Chinese working population: evidence from a nationwide cohort study. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2024, 46: 101083.
21. 黎楚湘, 吴擢春, 徐玲, 等. 我国不同性别患者医疗费用支出的差异. 中国卫生经济, 2006, (2): 46-48.
22. 杨建南, 李世云, 严兰兰. 综合医院男性与女性住院病人医疗费用比较分析. 数理医药学杂志, 2011, 24(2): 187-190.
23. 严善平. 中国城乡就业率的变化与决定因素—基于1988-2010年中国城镇收入调查数据的实证分析. 劳动经济研究, 2016, (3): 20.
24. 国务院. 关于建立新型农村合作医疗制度意见的通知. 2003.
25. 国务院. 关于开展城镇居民基本医疗保险试点的指导意见. 2007.
26. 国务院. 关于深化医药卫生体制改革的意见. 2009.
27. 梁珊珊, 周智华, 李成程, 等. 1990-2019年中国糖尿病疾病负担及发病预测分析. 中国全科医学, 2023, 26(16): 2013-2019.

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