ObjectivesTo analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 and the effects of age, time period and birth cohort on bladder cancer incidence and mortality.MethodsData on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 (GBD 2017) database. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change of ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer. The age-period-cohort model was established to analyze the age, period and birth cohort effects on ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2017, both ASIR and ASDR of bladder cancer decreased slightly. ASIR decreased from 6.42 per 100 000 in 1990 to 6.04 per 100 000 in 2017, with an average annual percentage change of −0.9% (−1.0% to −0.8%), and ASDR decreased from 3.15 per 100 000 in 1990 to 2017 2.57/100 000, with an average annual percentage change of −0.4% (−0.4% to −0.3%). The age-period-cohort model results showed that as age increased, the risk of bladder cancer incidence and mortality increased; as the birth cohort progressed, the risk of bladder cancer morbidity and mortality decreased. The time period had little effect on the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer.ConclusionsThe incidence and mortality of bladder cancer are declining globally. On the other hand, the increase of the aging global population could reverse the incidence and mortality trend, active measures should be taken to address the adverse effects of aging.
Objective To investigate the incidence trend of migraine in Chinese from 1990 to 2019 in the global burden of disease database (GBD2019) and its effect on three factors: age, period and cohort. Methods Data were obtained from GBD2019. Joinpoint software was used to analyze the changes in migraine incidence. We analyzed the age-period-cohort (APC) model of migraine in the Chinese population with Stata 17.0 software and estimated the effect of age, period, and cohort on migraine incidence. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence of migraine in the general population, and in men and women in China showed a fluctuating upwards trend, and the average annual percentage changes were 0.23%, 0.27% and 0.21%, respectively. The APC model showed that from 1990 to 2019, the risk of migraine in China decreased with the increase of age, showed a downward trend with the increase of the period, and increased with the increase of the birth cohort, indicating that the cohort effect played a dominant role in the risk of migraine in the current period, and the risk of women in the rear of the birth cohort began to be gradually higher than that of men. Conclusion The incidence of migraine in Chinese population is on the rise from 1990 to 2019, and the younger the age, the earlier the period, and the lower the birth cohort, the greater the risk of migraine, suggesting that the prevention and treatment of migraine in women aged 10 to 54 years should be strengthened to further reduce the incidence of migraine in China.
ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence and mortality trends of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the impact of age, period, and cohort on their long-term trends. MethodsThe joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model were used to analysis. The annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. The influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of falls were analyzed. ResultsThe standardized incidence and mortality rates of falls among the elderly in China showed fluctuating upward trends from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=1.929%, 1.535%, P<0.001), The increase rate of falls incidence was higher in men than that in women (AAPC=1.928%, 1.923%, P<0.001), and the increase rate of falls mortality was lower in men than that in women (AAPC=1.407%, 1.562%, P<0.001). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the age effect and period effect coefficients of incidence and mortality of falls in Chinese elderly men and women showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the cohort effect coefficients showed an overall downward trend. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the age standardized incidence and mortality rate of falls among the elderly in China show fluctuating upward trends. The incidence of falls in elderly women is higher than that in men, and the mortality rate of falls in elderly men is higher than that in women. It is recommended to strengthen the prevention work for falls in the oldest old, the incidence of falls in elderly women, and the mortality of falls in elderly men.