Barrett’s esophagus is considered an important risk factor for the pathogenesis of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Treatment strategies for diseases from high-grade dysplasia （HGD） to adenocarcinoma are different. The recurrence rates of endoscopic treatment and anti-reflux surgery are comparatively higher. Abnormal lesions of the esophagus can be completely resected by esophagectomy for the treatment of HGD to adenocarcinoma, and treatment outcomes are confirmed.But appropriate surgical strategies and lymph node dissection scopes should be chosen according to different cancer staging.Lymph node metastasis is a major factor in determining prognosis.
ObjectiveTo establish an individualized nomogram model and evaluate its efficacy to provide a possible evaluation basis for the prognosis of lower third and abdominal part of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). MethodsLower third and abdominal part of EAC patients were chosen from the SEER Research Plus Database (17 Regs, 2022nov sub). The patients were randomly allocated to the training cohort and the internal validation cohort with a ratio of 7∶3 using bootstrap resampling. The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine significant contributors to overall survival (OS) in EAC patients, which would be elected to construct the nomogram prediction model. C-index, calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed to evaluate its efficacy. Finally, the efficacy to evaluate the OS of EAC patients was compared between the nomogram prediction model and TNM staging system. ResultsIn total, 3945 patients with lower third and abdominal part of EAC were enrolled, including 3475 males and 470 females with a median age of 65 (57-72) years. 2761 patients were allocated to the training cohort and the remaining 1184 patients to the internal validation cohort. In the training and the internal validation cohorts, the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.705 and 0.713, respectively. Meanwhile, the calibration curve also suggested that the nomogram model had a strong capability of predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of EAC patients. The nomogram also had a higher efficacy than the TNM staging system in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of EAC patients. ConclusionThis nomogram prediction model has a high efficiency for predicting OS in the patients with lower third and abdominal part of EAC, which is higher than that of the current TNM staging system.