Abstract: Objective To evaluate the prediction validation of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation （EuroSCORE） in prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay, mortality, and major postoperative complications for Chinese patients operated for acquired heart valve disease. Methods Between January 2004 and January 2006, 2 218 consecutive patients treated for acquired heart valve diseases were enrolled in Fu Wai Hospital. All these patients accepted valvular surgery. Both logistic model and additive model were applied to EuroSCORE to evaluate its ability in predicting mortality, prolonged ICU stay and major postoperative complications of patients who had undergone heart valve surgery. An receiver operating characteristic curve（ ROC) area was used to test the discrimination of the models. Calibration was assessed by HosmerLemeshow goodnessoffit statistic. Results Discriminating abilities of logistic and additive EuroSCORE algorithm were 0.710 and 0.690 respectively for mortality, 0.670 and 0.660 for prolonged ICU stay, 0.650 and 0.640 for heart failure, 0.720 and 0.710 for respiratory failure, 0.700 and 0.740 for renal failure, and 0.540 and 0.550 for reexploration for bleeding. There was significant difference between logistic and additive algorithm in predicting renal failure and heart failure (Plt;0.05). Calibration of logistic and additive algorithm in predicting mortality, prolonged ICU stay and major postoperative complications were not satisfactory. However, logistic algorithm could be used to predict postoperative respiratory failure (P=0.120). Conclusion EuroSCORE is not an accurate predictor in predicting mortality, prolonged ICU stay and major postoperative complications, but the logistic model can be used to predict postoperative respiratory failure in Chinese patients operated for acquired heart valve diseases.
Objective To analyze the early clinical outcome of high-operative-risk coronary artery bypass grafting （CABG） classified according European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation （EuroSCORE）. Methods Classified eighty-four patients accepted CABG from Feb. 2004 to Sep. 2004 in our ward to high-operativerisk group （≥6, n=40） and low-medium-operative-risk group （0-5, n=44） according EuroSCORE. Record the operative schemes, complications after operation and evaluate the severe state with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ （APACHE Ⅱ ） and sequential organ failure assessment（SOFA） for all patients. Compare the early clinical outcome between the two groups. Results The operative mortality, ratio of long ICU-staying time, incidence of complications and severe degree of high-operative-risk group were higher than those in the low-mediumoperative-risk group. Standard EuroSCORE had significant positive correlation with either of A0, A1, Amax or S1, Smax counted in total patients （P〈0. 01）, and the same as logistic EuroSCORE （P〈 0. 05）. But when compared the relationships in certain risk ranks, only in high-operative-risk group the positive correlation was found between standard EuroSCORE and A1, Amax, S1 and Smax （P〈 0. 05）, between logistic EuroSCORE and Amax （P〈 0. 05）. Conclusion EuroSCORE could evaluate overall operative risk perfectly in our patients, and maybe more sensitively in the high-operative-risk patients. Many factors could improve the prognosis of high-operative-risk patients： accurate evaluation of the operative risk before surgery; perfect myocardial protection, effective myocardial revascularization and thorough correction of malformation in operation, and proper postoperative management in time.
ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model in predicting the in-hospital mortality of Uyghur patients and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. MethodsClinical data of 361 consecutive patients who underwent heart valve surgery at our center from September 2012 to December 2013 were collected, including 209 Uyghur patients and 152 Han nationality patients. According to the score for additive and logistic EuroSCORE models, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups including a low risk subgroup, a moderate risk subgroup, and a high risk subgroup. The actual and predicted mortality of each risk subgroup were studied and compared. Calibration of the EuroSCORE model was assessed by the test of goodness of fit, discrimination was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ResultsThe actual mortality was 8.03% for overall patients, 6.70% for Uyghur patients,and 9.87% for Han nationality patients. The predicted mortality by additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for Uyghur patients were 4.03% and 3.37%,for Han nationality patients were 4.43% and 3.77%, significantly lower than actual mortality (P<0.01). The area under the ROC curve of additive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE for overall patients were 0.606 and 0.598, for Han nationality patients were 0.574 and 0.553,and for Uyghur patients were 0.609 and 0.610. ConclusionThe additive and logistic EuroSCORE are unable to predict the in-hospital mortality accurately for Uyghur and Han nationality patients undergoing heart valve surgery. Clinical use of these model should be considered cautiously.
European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation(EuroSCORE) is one of the widely used and influential cardiac surgery risk assessment system. It was originally used to predict the quantitative score of probability of death after cardiac surgery. After that, it has been developed to predict long-term mortality and survival rate, ICU residence time, treatment costs, main complications and so on. EuroSCORE Ⅱ is the latest version, which is more accurate in predicting mortality, long term survival rate than the old one. But there are also some limitations as predicting limited range of the end, underestimating the mortality of critically endangered patients, lacking adequate preoperative risk factors and so on. This review article focuses on the production, development and clinical application of EuroSCORE.