ObjectivesTo classify the high risk population for primary liver cancer (PLC) in rural China.MethodsBetween June 2011 and June 2013, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers were identified in clinical laboratory of Qidong People’s Hospital and surveyed by questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression model was introduced to demonstrate independent risk factors associated with PLC occurrence. Moreover, receiver characteristic operating (ROC) curve was utilized to evaluate discrimination power of risk factor panel for PLC risk classification.ResultsA total of 1 296 HBsAg carriers were enrolled, among which 686 participants were male with an average age of 45.73±11.58 years, and 610 participants were female with an average age of 45.67±12.33 years. After a mean follow up period of 5.5 years, 43 incident PLC cases were confirmed, which generated a PLC incidence of 60.5 millions person years. Multi-univariate Cox model showed that increase of age (HR=1.055, 95%CI 1.029 to 1.083, P<0.000 1), male (HR=3.263, 95%CI 1.567 to 6.796,P=0.001 6), having family history of PLC (HR=2.315, 95%CI 1.260 to 4.252, P=0.006 8), HBeAg positivity (HR=2.367, 95%CI 1.267 to 4.419, P=0.006 9) and GGT abnormality (HR=2.721, 95%CI 1.457 to 5.083, P=0.001 7) were the independent risk factors of PLC.ConclusionRoutine host, viral and liver biochemical parameters which are readily accessible in daily clinical practice can be utilized in identification of the targeted population for prevention of PLC in rural China.
ObjectivesTo evaluate the accuracy of liver cancer screening techniques to inform screening intervention and early diagnosis.MethodsWe searched PubMed, The Cochrane Library, EMbase, Web of Science, CNKI, WanFang Data, CBM, VIP databases to collect relevant diagnostic accuracy studies of screening technologies for liver cancer from January 1980 to December 2017. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Then meta-analysis was performed by using Meta-Disc 1.4 software.ResultsA total of 54 publications with 47 728 individuals were included. In terms of pooled sensitivity from the meta-analysis, it was estimated as 0.71 (95%CI 0.70 to 0.72), 0.57 (95%CI 0.56 to 0.59) and 0.43 (95%CI 0.41 to 0.45); the pooled specificity was estimated as 0.92 (95%CI 0.92 to 0.93), 0.95 (95%CI 0.94 to 0.96) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.94 to 0.96); the pooled positive likelihood ratio was 5.65 (95%CI 4.37 to 7.30), 13.24(95%CI 4.25 to 41.22) and 11.39 (95%CI 4.01 to 32.35); the pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.35 (95%CI 0.31 to 0.39), 0.38 (95%CI 0.29 to 0.52) and 0.49 (95%CI 0.39 to 0.62); the diagnosis odds ratio was 17.23 (95%CI 12.26 to 24.20), 33.79 (95%CI 12.65 to 90.24) and 24.41(95%CI 9.23 to 64.53) for AFP alone with cut-off of 20, 200 and 400 ng/mL, respectively. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnosis odds ratio were 0.65 (95%CI 0.62 to 0.69), 0.97 (95%CI 0.97 to 0.97), 16.48 (95%CI 9.55 to 28.42), 0.27 (95%CI 0.18 to 0.42) and 64.54 (95%CI 30.16 to 138.11) for ultrasound examination alone. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnosis odds ratio were 0.96 (95%CI 0.94 to 0.98), 0.96 (95%CI 0.96 to 0.96), 10.76 (95%CI 2.62 to 44.27), 0.07 (95%CI 0.02 to 0.22) and 160.59 (95%CI 31.61 to 816.03) for the combined strategy.ConclusionFor liver cancer screening technologies, the overall accuracy of serum AFP test alone is the optimum at cut-off of 20 ng/mL, and the sensitivity increased substantially when combined with ultrasound examination.