Objective To establish a risk evaluation indicator system for intrauterine device (IUD), to determine the weight of indicators, to comprehensively evaluate the risk of IUDs by using a variety of comprehensive evaluation methods according to the data of IUDs, so as to provide references for the government purchasing decision-making. Methods The literature review, long-term monitoring of IUD adverse events, large sample randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Delphi methods were applied to establish the risk evaluation indicator system for IUD. The weight of each indicator was determined by jointly using the subjective scoring method and CRITIC method. Based on the established indicator system, primary research (RCT) data and secondary research data (literature data), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and synthetical scored method were used to assess the risk of IUDs respectively, and then the assessment results of three methods were integrated to obtain a comprehensive rank of various IUDs. Results A two-level risk evaluation indicator system for IUD was established and the seven 1st level indicators included unwanted pregnancy, expulsion, menstruation problems, pain, IUD ectopia, position and shape changes as well as total health problems, which were divided into 26 2nd level indicators. Through the subjective and objective weighting method, the weights of each 1st level indicator were 0.147 5, 0.144 3, 0.140 7, 0.174 8, 0.163 2, 0.132 8, and 0.096 6, respectively. The risk evaluation of the above three methods showed that among the three kinds of IUD in a multicenter RCT, yuangong365 was with the lowest risk, followed by TCu380A and MLCu375. The risk evaluation showed that among the 14 kinds of IUD from literatures, medicated γ IUD was with the lowest risk, followed by HCu280, yuangong365, and Gyne IUD, while the medicated stainless steel ring 165 was with the highest risk. Conclusion The established indicator system has a good representation and credibility, and the ways to identify the weight of indicators are scientific, comprehensive and accurate. Meanwhile, the findings which were demonstrated by various assessing methods are consistent to a large extent. Now that medicated γ IUD and HCu280 have been already included in the National Coverage Plan, it is suggested that if the prices of yuangong365 and Gyne IUD are reasonable, the two IUDs could be considered to be listed in the National Coverage Plan and freely chosen by women of child-bearing age.
Objective To validate the accuracy of the colorectal cancer model of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI-CCM), and to find out the relationship between clinical risk factors and the predictive value produced by ACPGBI-CCM. Methods The patients diagnosed definitely as colorectal cancer in the department of anal-colorectal surgery, West China hospital from April 2007 to July 2007 were analyzed retrospectively. And the predictive value of mortality for each patient was calculated by ACPGBI-CCM, then the difference of risk factors was compared by classifying the patients into lower risk group and higher risk group by making the median predictive mortality as a cut point. Results From April 2007 to July 2007, a total of 99 patients diagnosed definitely as colorectal cancer accepted treatment, and among which 67 patients included in this study were admitted whose average age was 60.09 years. And there were 34 male and 33 female patients; 15 right hemicolon cancer, 9 left hemicolon cancer, 43 rectal cancer; Dukes staging: A 0 case, B 37 cases, C 24 cases, D 6 cases. The observed mortality 30 days after operation was 0, whereas the predictive mortality was 0.77%-25.75% with a median value of 3.36%. Then the patients whose predictive mortality were ≤3.36% were grouped as lower risk group (34 cases), the others higher risk group (33 cases), and there was strikingly different predictive mortality between two groups 〔(8.86±4.51)% vs (1.76±0.68)%, P＜0.01〕. And between two groups, the age, internal medicine complications, preoperative chemotherapy, ASA grading, cancer resected, and operative time made predominant differences (P＜0.01); and the neoplastic complications, Dukes staging, TNM classification, postoperative pain showed differences, too (P＜0.05); however, the gender, history of abdominal operation, the distance of the neoplasm to anal edge, the cancer location, differentiated degree, postoperative hospitalization time, and total hospitalization time didn’t have any differences (Pgt;0.05). Furthermore, stratification analysis was made for risk factors, and it came out that there were great differences of predictive mortality for different age groups and ASA grading, having internal medicine complications or not, having chemotherapy or not, and for cancer resected or not, and the differences were statistically significant (P＜0.01); also different Dukes staging or differentiation could cause different mortality (P＜0.05); but the difference of mortality didn’t make any sense according to gender, having abdominal operative history or not, having neoplastic complications or not, different TNM staging and cancer location (Pgt;0.05). Conclusion The clinical applicability of the ACPGBI-CCM is ascertained in such a large volume single medical centre, but the ACPGBI-CCM overpredicts the mortality in this study which may be attributed to the different areas, nations, or the different cultures. The complications and the neo-adjuvant or adjuvant therapy are further found out that they may be independent predictive factors of survival, and more research will be needed to prove this.
Objective To evaluate the risk of management decision combined neo-adjuvant chemotherapy with operation for colorectal cancer by means of the colorectal cancer model of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI-CCM). Methods One hundred and eighty-one eligible patients (102 male, 79 female, mean age 58.78 years), which were pathologically proved colorectal cancer in our ward from July to November 2007, involved 62 colonic and 119 rectal cancer. The enrollment were assigned into multi-disciplinary team (MDT) group (n=65) or non-MDT group (n=116), according to whether the MDT was adopted, and the operative risk was analyzed by ACPGBI-CCM. Results The baseline characteristics of MDT and non-MDT group were coherent. The watershed of lower risk group (LRG) and higher risk group (HRG) was set as predictive mortality=2.07%. The time involving extraction of gastric, urethral and drainage tube, feeding, out-of-bed activity after operation in MDT group, whatever in LRG or HRG, were statistically earlier than those in non-MDT group (P＜0.05). The resectable rate in LRG was statistically higher than that in HRG (P＜0.05), and the proportion of Dukes staging was significantly different (P＜0.05) between two groups; Moreover, predictive mortality in HRG was statistically higher than that in LRG (P＜0.05), while actually there was no death in both groups. Conclusion Dukes staging which is included as an indispensable option by ACPGBI-CCM is responsible for the lower predictive mortality in LRG.Hence, the value of ACPGBI-CCM used to asses the morbidity of complications within 30 days postoperatively would be warranted by further research. The postoperative risk evaluation can serve as a novel routine to comprehensively analyze the short-term safe in the MDT.