Objective To build a score with the coagulation, inflammation indexes of sepsis patients, named Sepsis-Related Coagulo-Inflammatory Score (SRCIS), and then evaluate the prognostic capability of it in predicting the 28-day mortality of septic patients after the diagnosis. Methods In this prospective nested case-control study, we recruited septic patients according to the Sepsis 3.0 standards, who visited the Emergency Department, West China Hospital of Sichuan University from September 2017 to January 2018. Multiple factor analysis was conducted to confirm which coagulation or inflammation biomarkers were independent risk factors related to the 28-day mortality after their diagnosis. After that, the SRCIS was built based on those independent risk factors. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to verify its prognostic capability for the 28-day mortality of septic patients. Results A total of 123 cases were included. Among them, 17 patients died within 28 days, and the mortality rate was 13.8%. There were no significant differences in the demographic characteristics or comorbidities between the survival group and dead group (P>0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that both activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) [odds ratio (OR)=1.015, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.017, 1.189), P=0.017] and C-reactive protein (CRP) [OR=1.100, 95%CI (1.006, 1.025), P=0.002] were independent risk factors for predicting the 28-day mortality of septic patients. ROC analysis indicated that the cut-off values of APTT and CRP predicting the 28-day mortality rate of sepsis were 39.25 seconds and 198.05 mg/L, respectively, and the areas under the curve (AUC) of them were 0.618 and 0.671, respectively. The results indicated that the mortality increased from 8.79% to 28.13%, when APTT prolonged to no less than 39.25 seconds (P<0.05). The mortality also increased from 8.89% to 27.27% when CRP elevated to no less than 198.05 mg/L (P<0.05). The AUC of SRCIS in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis was 0.707, which was better than that of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (AUC=0.681) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) (AUC=0.695). The corresponding 28-day mortality rates for patients with sepsis were 6.94%, 16.22%, and 42.86% (P<0.05), respectively, when the SRCIS score were 0, 1, and 2. Conclusions APTT and CRP are independent risk factors in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Compared with traditional scoring systems such as SOFA and qSOFA, SRCIS performances better in predicting the 28-day mortality for patients with sepsis.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictive value of critical illness scores for hospital mortality of severe respiratory diseases in respiratory intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsThe clinical data of the patients who needed intensive care and primary diagnosed with respiratory diseases from June, 2001 to Octomber, 2012 were extracted from MIMIC-Ⅲ database. The Acute Physiology Score (APS) Ⅲ, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) Ⅱ, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) were calculated according to the requirements of each scoring system. ICU mortality was set up as primary outcome and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive performances by comparing the areas under ROC curve (AUC). According to whether they received invasive mechanical ventilation during ICU, the patients were divided into two groups (group A: without invasive mechanical ventilation group; group B: with invasive mechanical ventilation group). The AUCs of six scoring systems were calculated for groups A and B, and the ROC curves were compared independently.ResultsA total of 2988 patients were recruited, male accounted for 49.4%, median age was 67 (55, 79), and ICU mortality was 13.2%. The AUCs of SAPSⅡ, LODS, APSⅢ, OASIS, SOFA and SIRS were 0.73 (0.70, 0.75), 0.71 (0.68, 0.73), 0.69 (0.67, 0.72), 0.69 (0.67, 0.72), 0.67 (0.64, 0.70) and 0.58 (0.56, 0.62). Subgroup analysis showed that in group A, the AUCs of OASIS, SAPSⅡ, LODS, APSⅢ, SOFA and SIRS were 0.81 (0.76, 0.85), 0.80 (0.75, 0.85), 0.77 (0.72, 0.83), 0.75 (0.70, 0.80), 0.73 (0.68, 0.78) and 0.63 (0.56, 0.69) in the prediction of ICU mortality; in group B, the AUCs of SAPSⅡ, APSⅢ, LODS, SOFA, OASIS and SIRS were 0.68 (0.64, 0.71), 0.67 (0.63, 0.70), 0.65 (0.62, 0.69), 0.62 (0.59, 0.66), 0.62 (0.58, 0.65) and 0.57 (0.54, 0.61) in the prediction of ICU mortality. The results of independent ROC curve showed that the AUC differences between groups A and B were statistically significant in terms of OASIS, SAPSⅡ, LODS, APSⅢ and SOFA, but there were no significant differences in SIRS.ConclusionsThe predictive values of six critical illness scores for ICU mortality in respiratory intensive care are low. Lack of ability to predict ICU mortality of patients with invasive mechanical ventilation should hold primary responsibility.