ObjectiveTo analyze epidemic characteristics of multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) in Neurosurgical Intensive Care Unit (NSICU), and to analyze the status of infection and colonization, in order to provide reference for constituting intervention measures. MethodsPatients who stayed in NSICU during January 2014 to April 2015 were actively monitored for the MDRO situation. ResultsA total of 218 MDRO pathogens were isolated from 159 patients, and 42 cases were healthcare-associated infections (HAI) among 159 patients. The Acinetobacter baumannii was the most common one in the isolated acinetobacter. Colonization rate was positively correlated with the incidence of HAI. From January to December, there was a significantly increase in the colonization rate, but not in the incidence of HAI. ConclusionThe main MDRO situation is colonization in NSICU. The obvious seasonal variation makes the HAI risk at different levels. So it is necessary that full-time and part-time HAI control staff be on alert, issue timely risk warning, and strengthen risk management. The Acinetobacter baumannii has become the number one target for HAI prevention and control in NSICU, so their apparent seasonal distribution is worthy of more attention, and strict implementation of HAI prevention and control measures should be carried out.
ObjectiveTo acquire the flow law of outpatient and emergency visits in a large general hospital. MethodsBy sampling monthly amount of outpatient and emergency from January 2005 to December 2013 of a large general hospital in Guangzhou, the trend of the time series was analyzed and calculated the seasonal index of the amount of hospital outpatient and emergency visits with the use of long-term trends method. ResultThe flow law of patients in the hospital outpatient and emergency was significantly affected by seasonal factors, and different month had its own variation characters. The seasonal indexes were the highest in March, July, August, November and December (seasonal index >105%), while the lowest in January, February, October (seasonal index <95%). ConclusionBased on analysis of the outpatient and emergency visits and causes with hospitals, decision makers and hospitals should make reasonable allocation of medical resources and provide evidence for the scientific decisions of hospital management. Thus, ensure the safety of patients.
ObjectiveTo establish a forecasting model for inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures and predict the trend of its variation.MethodsAccording to inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures from January 2013 to December 2018, this paper analyzed its characteristics and established the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to make a short-term quantitative forecast.ResultsA total of 4 451 patients, involving 2 861 males and 1 590 females were included. The ratio of males to females was 1.8 to 1, and the average age was 5.655. There was a significant difference in age distribution between males and females (χ2=44.363, P<0.001). The inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures were recorded monthly, with predominant peak annually, from April to June and September to October, respectively. Using the data of the training set from January 2013 to May 2018, a SARIMA model of SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model (white noise test, P>0.05) was identified to make short-term forecast for the prediction set from June 2018 to November 2018, with RMSE=8.110, MAPE=9.386, and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value ranged from 1.61% to 8.06%.ConclusionsCompared with the actual cases, the SARIMA model fits well with good short-term prediction accuracy, and it can help provide reliable data support for a scientific forecast for the inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures.