Objective To observe the value of serum soluble receptor of advanced glycation endproducts (sRAGE) combined with lung function and high resolution lung CT (HRCT) in predicting the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) developing non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods From January 2019 to June 2021, 140 patients with COPD combined with NSCLC, 137 patients with COPD, and 133 patients with NSCLC were enrolled in the study from the People's Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. General data, clinical symptoms, pulmonary function indexes and HRCT emphysema indexes (EI) were collected. Serum sRAGE levels of these patients were measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Clinical characteristics of patients with COPD complicated with NSCLC were analyzed. Serum sRAGE, lung function and lung HRCT were combined to evaluate the correlation between the degree of emphysema and the occurrence of NSCLC in COPD, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for diagnostic efficiency. Results Compared with NSCLC group, COPD combined with NSCLC group had higher proportion of male patients, higher proportion of elderly patients, higher smoking index, and higher proportion of squamous cell carcinoma (P<0.05). FEV1 and FEV1%pred in COPD combined with NSCLC group were significantly lower than those in COPD group and NSCLC group. The Goddard score and EI values of emphysema were significantly increased (P<0.05). Serum sRAGE was significantly lower than that of COPD group and NSCLC group (P<0.05). Serum sRAGE level was positively correlated with FEV1%pred (r=0.366, P<0.001) and FEV1/FVC (r=0.419, P<0.001), and negatively correlated with Goddard score (r=–0.710, P=0.001) and EI value (r=–0.515, P<0.001). Binary multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that age, smoking index, EI, Goddard score, RV/TLC were positively correlated with the risk of COPD developing NSCLC, while FEV1%pred, FVC, FEV1/FVC and serum sRAGE were negatively correlated with the risk of COPD developing NSCLC. ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of single diagnosis of sRAGE was 0.990, and the optimal cut-off value of 391.98 pg/mL with sensitivity of 93.3% and specificity of 89.7%. The AUC of sRAGE combined with age, smoking index, EI, Goddard score, FEV1%pred, FVC, FEV1/FVC, RV/TLC was 1.000 with sensitivity of 96.7%, specificity of 96.6%, and Yoden index of 0.933. Conclusion The combination of serum sRAGE, lung function and HRCT emphysema score can improve prediction of NSCLC occurrence in COPD.