ObjectiveTo explore the independent risk factors for benign and malignant subsolid pulmonary nodules and establish a malignant probability prediction model.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed in 443 patients with subsolid pulmonary nodules admitted to Subei People's Hospital of Jiangsu Province from 2014 to 2018 with definite pathological findings. The patients were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group. There were 296 patients in the modeling group, including 125 males and 171 females, with an average age of 55.9±11.1 years. There were 147 patients in the verification group, including 68 males and 79 females, with an average age of 56.9±11.6 years. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to screen the independent risk factors for benign and malignant lesions of subsolid pulmonary nodules, and then a prediction model was established. Based on the validation data, the model of this study was compared and validated with Mayo, VA, Brock and PKUPH models.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate analysis showed that gender, consolidation/tumor ratio (CTR), boundary, spiculation, lobulation and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent risk factors for the diagnosis of benign and malignant subsolid pulmonary nodules. The prediction model formula for malignant probability was: P=ex/(1+ex). X=0.018+(1.436×gender)+(2.068×CTR)+(−1.976×boundary)+ (2.082×spiculation)+(1.277×lobulation)+(2.296×CEA). In this study, the area under the curve was 0.856, the sensitivity was 81.6%, the specificity was 75.6%, the positive predictive value was 95.4%, and the negative predictive value was 39.8%. Compared with the traditional model, the predictive value of this model was significantly better than that of Mayo, VA, Brock and PKUPH models.ConclusionCompared with Mayo, VA, Brock and PKUPH models, the predictive value of the model is more ideal and has greater clinical application value, which can be used for early screening of subsolid nodules.
ObjectiveTo explore the CT imaging features and independent risk factors for cystic pulmonary nodules and establish a malignant probability prediction model. Methods The patients with cystic pulmonary nodules admitted to the Department of Thoracic Surgery of the First People's Hospital of Neijiang from January 2017 to February 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. They were divided into a malignant group and a benign group according to the pathological results. The clinical data and preoperative chest CT imaging features of the two groups were collected, and the independent risk factors for malignant cystic pulmonary nodules were screened out by logistic regression analysis, so as to establish a prediction model for benign and malignant cystic pulmonary nodules. ResultsA total of 107 patients were enrolled. There were 76 patients in the malignant group, including 36 males and 40 females, with an average age of 59.65±11.74 years. There were 31 patients in the benign group, including 16 males and 15 females, with an average age of 58.96±13.91 years. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the special CT imaging features such as cystic wall nodules [OR=3.538, 95%CI (1.231, 10.164), P=0.019], short burrs [OR=4.106, 95%CI (1.454, 11.598), P=0.008], cystic wall morphology [OR=6.978, 95%CI (2.374, 20.505), P<0.001], and the number of cysts [OR=4.179, 95%CI (1.438, 12.146), P=0.009] were independent risk factors for cystic lung cancer. A prediction model was established: P=ex/(1+ex), X=–2.453+1.264×cystic wall nodules+1.412×short burrs+1.943×cystic wall morphology+1.430×the number of cysts. The area under the receiver operating charateristic curve was 0.830, the sensitivity was 82.9%, and the specificity was 74.2%. ConclusionCystic wall nodules, short burrs, cystic wall morphology, and the number of cysts are the independent risk factors for cystic lung cancer, and the established prediction model can be used as a screening method for cystic pulmonary nodules.