ObjectiveTo analyze the latest epidemiological status of breast cancer in China, trends in morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and related prognostic risk factors.MethodsData on incidence and mortality of Chinese female breast cancer, their related age-standardized rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2019, and attributable risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 34 provinces in China were obtained from literature. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trends of ASRs. The exposure levels of each attributable risk factor and the increased cancer burden were analyzed.ResultsThe incidence of breast cancer in Chinese females increased annually, from 17.07/100 000 in 1990 to 35.61/100 000 in 2019, while the mortality rate initially increased and decreased, and then exhibited an upward trend after 2016 and there was no obvious variation from 1990 (9.16/100 000) to 2019 (9.02/100 000). Among the 34 provinces of China, Shandong Province had the most serious breast cancer burden, while Macao Special Administrative Region had the lowest. Among the seven prognostic risk factors, high body mass index (BMI) contributed the most to the breast cancer burden and the exposure risk of a diet high in red meat had shown a significant increasing trend in the past 30 years. Therefore, the disease burden caused by a high red meat diet would be increasing.ConclusionsThe incidence rate of breast cancer in Chinese females is increasing. With the development of social economy and the change of people’s dietary habits, the breast cancer burden in China trends to become heavier and heavier. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the "three early" prevention and treatment and advocate healthy and reasonable diet and living habits to reduce the burden of breast cancer to improve prognosis and quality of life.
Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019, predict the incidence, morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040, and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence, morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected, and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change (EAPC) were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040. Results In 2019, the age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62%, 10.97%, and 41.56%, respectively, compared with 1990, and an average annual decrease of 1.06%, 0.89%, and 2.05%, respectively (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the reduction age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women (EAPC was 1.56%, 1.38%, and 2.62%, respectively) was higher than that of men (EAPC was 0.61%, 0.43%, and 1.59%, respectively). In 2019, the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age, and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old. The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040, while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. It is estimated that by 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000, 108.23/100 000, and 2.83/100 000. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year, but they were still at a high level. The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance, prevention and control of leukemia in the future.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and evolving trends for gastric cancer in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. MethodsBased on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we analyzed the burden of gastric cancer using indicators such as incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lost due to disability (YLDs). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of these indicators to show trends over time. ResultsIn 2021, the standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 14.33 (per 100 000) worldwide and 29.05 (per 100 000) in China, with corresponding standardized mortality rates of 11.20 (per 100 000) and 21.51 (per 100 000). The incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer worldwide and in China gradually increased with age. Currently, in China, there was a notable decrease in the age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC=–2.76%, P<0.05), YLLs rate (AAPC=–2.78%, P<0.05), and YLDs rate (AAPC=–1.25%, P<0.05), while standardized global rates of DALYs (AAPC=–2.42%, P<0.05), YLLs (AAPC=–2.44%, P<0.05), and YLDs (AAPC=–1.56%, P<0.05) had all shown significant decreases. These AAPC values above indicated a general attenuation in the gastric cancer burden across all age groups, both in China and worldwide. ConclusionsDespite these signs of a decline in disease burden indicators for gastric cancer in China and worldwide, the number of cases and deaths in gastric cancer remains substantial coupled with the heavy burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, increased efforts in early detection and prevention strategies are of utmost importance to further reduce the impact of this malignant disease.