Abstract: Objective To investigate the method of improving effect, by investigating and analyzing the possible risk factors affecting shortterm outcome after total correction of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). Methods Data of 219 patients who received total correction of TOF were divided into two groups according to the length of postoperative stay in hospital and recovery of heart function in the near future. Group A(n=110): patients had good recovery of heart function classified as gradeⅠorⅡ（NYHA classification）, and could smoothly be discharged from the hospital within two weeks without serious complications. The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) had to exceed to 0.50 during 6 months followup visit. Group B(n=109): patients had worse recovery of heart function classified as grade Ⅱ or Ⅲ, and could not be discharged within two weeks with severe complications. LVEF was less than 0.50 during 6 months followup visit. The clinical data of two groups were compared, and risk factors affecting shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF operation were analyzed by logistic regression and model selection. Results There were good recovery of heart function classified as gradeⅠorⅡ(NYHA classification）in discharge, no death, and LVEF all exceeded to 0.50 in group A; there were 8 deaths in group B (7.34 %), and recovery of heart function was worse classified as grade Ⅱ or Ⅲ, with LVEF being less than 0.50（Plt;0.01）. Amount of postoperative daily thoracic drainage, assisted respiration time, time of inotropic agent stabilizing circulation, and the average length of postoperative stay in group A were all less or short than those in group B（Plt;0.01）. But the bypass and clamping time of group B were exceeded group A. The ratio of patching astride annulus in group B was greater than that in group A, and Nakata index was less than that in group A(Plt;0.01). The results of logistic regression and model selection indicate: age at repair (OR=0.69), oxygen saturation(OR=0.98), haematocrit before operation (OR=0.94), and patching astride annulus (OR=46.86), Nakata index (OR=16.90), amount of postoperative daily thoracic drainage (OR=0.84), presence of arrhythmia(OR=0.87), and wound infection(OR=63.57) have significant effect with shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF operation. Conclusions The probable methods to improving effect of shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF are an earlier age at repair, decreasing haematocrit, rising oxygen saturation before surgery, performing a palliative operation facilitating development of arteriae pulmonalis in earlier time, improving the surgical technique, and strengthening the perioperative care.
Erythemato-squamous diseases are a general designation of six common skin diseases, of which the differential diagnosis is a difficult problem in dermatology. This paper presents a new method based on virtual coding for qualitative variables and multinomial logistic regression penalized via elastic net. Considering the attributes of variables, a virtual coding is applied and contributes to avoid the irrationality of calculating nominal values directly. Multinomial logistic regression model penalized via elastic net is thence used to fit the correlation between the features and classification of diseases. At last, parameter estimations can be attained through coordinate descent. This method reached accuracy rate of 98.34%±0.0027% using 10-fold cross validation in the experiments. Our method attained equivalent accuracy rate compared to the results of other methods, but steps are simpler and stability is higher.
Objective To approach the convenient prediction methods about surgical indications of adhesive ileus. Methods Two thousand and thirtyfour patients with adhesive ileus were analyzed retrospectively between January 1996 and January 2010 in the Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University， and 1 992 patients were included into this model. Seventeen factors which could influence the surgical decisions, including period of intestinal obstruction (X1), frequency of attack (X2), history of operation on abdominal region (X3), continuous and severe abdominal pain (X4), severe or frequent vomiting (X5), severe abdominal distention (X6), hemafecia (X7), fever (X8), heart rate (X9), shock or hypotension (X10), touching a swell ansa intestinalis (X11), hypoactive bowel sound (X12), peritonitis (X13), white blood cell (WBC) count of peripheral blood (X14), obstruction ansa interstinalis fixation and a severe expansion by abdominal erect position plain film (X15), peritoneal cavity free air (X16), and seroperitoneum whether or not by B ultrasonic examination (X17) were analyzed by binary logistic regression. Then prediction schedule whether patients with adhesive ileus needed emergency operation was gained by the theory of logistic regression analysis. Results Eight items were included in the prediction model by the method of forward stepwise which were X1, X2, X4, X9, X13, X14, X15, and X17, respectively. The probability of operation could be calculated by the following formula: logit(P)=expZ/（1+expZ）, where, Z={-7.813+〔-1.942×X1(1)/2.290×X1(2)/2.765×X1(3)〕+2.801×X2+2.692×X4+10.610×X9(1)/13.279×X9(2)+3.422×X13+〔-3.048×X14(1)/16.992×X14(2)〕+6.113×X15+2×X17}， which X1（1）, X1（2）, and X1（3） were periods of intestinal obstruction 3－5 d, 5－7 d, and ≥7 d, respectively. X9(1) and X9(2) were heart rates of 60－100/min and ≥100/min, respectively. X14(1) and X14(2) were WBC counts of peripheral blood of (10-20)×109/L and ≥20×109/L， respectively. The patient had to accept surgical procedure when the value of P was more than 0.5. The coincidence was 99.00%, sensitivity was 96.17%, specificity was 99.53% in 1 992 patients. The coincidence was 96.20%, sensitivity was 90.00%, specificity was 96.84% in 105 patients between January 2010 and April 2010 in this hospital. Conclusion The prediction schedule is a good useful value, but the coefficients is corrected following the cases increasing.
Objective To investigate the adverse pregnant outcomes of hospitalized pregnant women in Lanzhou city, and analyze the corresponding risk factors and provide basis for the further research on better child-bearing and child-rearing. Methods In two provincial-level hospitals and one provincial-level specialized hospital, the method of cluster random sampling was applied to extract 6 825 medical records from January 2004 to December 2005. The relevant information was abstracted and correlative analyses were undertaken. Results The incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes for the hospitalized pregnant women in Lanzhou city was 14.65%. Single-factor unconditional logistic regression analyses displayed that the variables with statistical significance were the number of previous pregnancies, the number of previous child delivery, abortion history, abnormal gestation history, and past medical history, whereas multi-factor unconditional logistic regression analyses revealed that the adverse pregnancy outcomes were positively correlated with abnormal gestation history and the number of previous pregnancies with statistical significance. Conclusion The incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes for the hospitalized pregnant women in Lanzhou city is quite high. Abnormal gestation history and the number of previous pregnancies are the main risk factors for the adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Objective To study the influence factors of surgical site infection (SSI) after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery. Methods Fifty patients suffered from SSI after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery who treated in Feng,nan District Hospital of Tangshan City from April 2010 and April 2015 were retrospectively collected as observation group, and 102 patients who didn’t suffered from SSI after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery at the same time period were retrospectively collected as control group. Then logistic regression was performed to explore the influence factors of SSI. Results Results of univariate analysis showed that, the ratios of patients older than 60 years, combined with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, had abdominal surgery history, had smoking history, suffered from the increased level of preoperative blood glucose , suffered from preoperative infection, operative time was longer than 180 minutes, American Societyof Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were 3-5, indwelled drainage tube, without dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery, and new injury severity score (NISS) were 2-3 were higher in observation group (P＜0.05). Results of logistic regression analysis showed that, patients had history of abdominal surgery (OR=1.92), without dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery (OR=2.07), and NISS were 2-3 (OR=2.27) had higher incidence of SSI (P＜0.05). Conclusion We should pay more attention on the patient with abdominal surgery history and with NISS of 2-3, and give dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery, to reduce the incidence of SSI.
Objective To analyze the factors associated with the adoption of targeted therapy in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer and to generate evidence to inform decision-making on public security policy regarding innovative anticancer medicines for the benefit of patients. Methods The study population comprised female patients diagnosed with HER2-positive breast cancer and treated at Fujian Cancer Hospital from 2014 to 2020. The patients were eligible for targeted therapy. The demographic and sociological characteristics and clinical information of patients were extracted from the hospital information system. We performed binary logistic regression analysis of factors associated with the adoption of targeted therapy in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer. We also divided the participants into two groups according to their tumor stage for subgroup analysis. Results A total of 1 041 female patients with HER2-positive breast cancer were included, among them, 803 received targeted therapy. In September 2017, molecular-targeted medicines for HER2-positive breast cancer began to be included in the local basic health insurance program. Only 282 (35.1%) patients adopted targeted therapy before September 2017, after which this number increased to 521 (64.9%). Among the patients who adopted targeted therapy, most were formally employed (45.8%) and enrollees of the urban employee health insurance program (66.0%). Among those who did not adopt targeted therapy, most were unemployed (42.4%) and enrollees of the resident health insurance program (50.0%). Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that patient occupation, gene expression of estrogen receptor, tumor stage, surgery or not, radiotherapy or not, and undergoing treatment before or after September 2017 were correlated with the adoption of targeted therapy (P<0.05). Conclusions Inclusion of targeted medicines for HER2-positive breast cancer in the health insurance program substantially increased the overall administration of these therapies. Individual affordability is a critical factor associated with the application of targeted therapy in eligible patients. Future policies should enhance the public security of patients with a relatively weak ability to pay and provide insurance coverage for innovative anti-cancer medicines.
Objective To evaluate the risk factors for postoperative in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery, and develop a new prediction models using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression. Methods The patients≥65 years who underwent cardiac valvular surgery from 2016 to 2018 were collected from the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR). The patients who received the surgery from January 2016 to June 2018 were allocated to a training set, and the patients who received the surgery from July to December 2018 were allocated to a testing set. The risk factors for postoperative mortality were analyzed and a LASSO-logistic regression prediction model was developed and compared with the EuroSCOREⅡ. Results A total of 7 163 patients were collected in this study, including 3 939 males and 3 224 females, with a mean age of 69.8±4.5 years. There were 5 774 patients in the training set and 1389 patients in the testing set. Overall, the in-hospital mortality was 4.0% (290/7163). The final LASSO-logistic regression model included 7 risk factors: age, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, combined coronary artery bypass grafting, creatinine clearance rate, cardiopulmonary bypass time, New York Heart Association cardiac classification. LASSO-logistic regression had a satisfying discrimination and calibration in both training [area under the curve (AUC)=0.785, 0.627] and testing cohorts (AUC=0.739, 0.642), which was superior to EuroSCOREⅡ. Conclusion The mortality rate for elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery is relatively high. LASSO-logistic regression model can predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery.
ObjectiveTo explore risk factors of gastric paralysis following gastrectomy of gastric cancer and analyze its causes. MethodsThe clinical data of 116 patients with gastric cancer for hospitalization time more than 21 days following gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed from October 2011 to October 2013 in this hospital, in which 16 patients with gastric paralysis and 116 patients without gastric paralysis. The factors relevant gastric paralysis were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. ResultsThe results of single factor analysis showed that the preoperative body mass index, history of diabetes, operative time, postoperative cardiovascular complications, albumin and hemoglobin levels within 3 d after operation, time to get out of bed after surgery, extubation time of gastric tube, the first drinking time and the first feeding time were associated with the gastric paralysis (P < 0.05), but the gender, age, time of diabetes history, life mode, smoking history, hypertension history, pylorus preserving or not, laparoscopy or not, intraoperative blood loss, intraoperative blood transfusion, uses of postoperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy drugs and postoperative analgesic drugs, and indwelling time of jejunum nutrition tube were not associated with gastric paralysis (P > 0.05). The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the preoperative body mass index, history of diabetes, operative time, time to get out of bed after surgery, and postoperative cardiovascular complications were the independent risk factors of gastric paralysis (P < 0.05). ConclusionsThere are many factors that affect occurrence of gastric paralysis following gastrectomy of gastric cancer. Preoperative or intraoperative positive prevention measures could be taken according to the factors that might affect occurrence of gastric paralysis, which might be reduce gastric paralysis following gastrectomy of gastric cancer.
【摘要】 目的 探讨IgA肾病肾血管病变的危险因素。 方法 回顾性分析2000年1月－2009年6月间经肾活检确诊的175例IgA肾病患者资料，其中有肾血管病变者93例，无肾血管病变者82例，进行对照研究。采用多因素非条件logistic回归模型分析影响IgA肾病肾血管病变的危险因素。 结果 高血压[OR=11.593，P=0.001，95%CI（2.800，47.991）]、24 h尿蛋白定量[OR=1.754，P=0.001，95%CI（1.270，2.424）]、血肌酐[OR=1.005，P=0.001，95%CI（1.002，1.008）]、肾小球硬化[OR=8.341，P=0.000，95%CI（2.716，25.610）]、肾间质纤维化[OR=4.880，P=0.014，95%CI（1.385，17.199）]对IgA肾病肾血管病变的影响有统计学意义。 结论 高血压、24 h尿蛋白定量、血肌酐、肾小球硬化和肾间质纤维化可能是影响IgA肾病肾血管病变的独立危险因素。积极控制以上危险因素对延缓IgA肾病病变的进展具有重要意义。【Abstract】 Objective To explore the risk factors for renal vascular lesions in patients with immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 175 IgA nephropathy patients diagnosed through renal biopsy from January 2000 to June 2009. Among them, there were 98 cases of renal vascular lesions and 82 cases without renal vascular lesion. Controlled study between the two groups of patients were carried out. A multivariate unconditional logistic regression model was employed to analyze the risk factors for renal vascular lesions in IgA nephropathy patients. Results The following factors had significant correlations with renal vascular lesions in IgA nephropathy patients: hypertension [OR=11.593,P=0.001,95%CI (2.800, 47.991)], 24-hour urine protein level [OR=1.754,P=0.001, 95%CI (1.270, 2.424)], serum creatinine [OR=1.005,P=0.001, 95%CI (1.002, 1.008)], glomerulosclerosis [OR=8.341,P=0.000,95%CI (2.716, 25.610)], and renal interstitial fibrosis [OR=4.880,P=0.014, 95%CI(1.385,17.199)]. Conclusion Hypertension, 24-hour urine protein, serum creatinine, glomerulosclerosis and renal interstitial fibrosis were risk factors for renal vascular lesions in IgA nephropathy patients. It will be very significant to actively control all the above risk factors to prevent occurrence of renal vascular lesions.
目的:探讨心肺复苏循环恢复患者早期评估预后的相关因素。方法:对56例心肺复苏循环恢复患者进行病例回顾分析,分别记录患者年龄、性别以及心肺复苏循环恢复1小时内的瞳孔直径、格拉斯高昏迷评分、血WBC计数、血清肌酐Cr、血清丙氨酸氨基转移酶ALT、肌酸磷酸激酶、D-二聚体定性、血钙、血钾、血清淀粉酶、复苏后1小时内是否使用亚低温治疗、pH值、动脉血氧分压PaO2、动脉血二氧化碳分压PaCO2、血葡萄糖、复苏时间等, 采用多因素logistic回归模型分析心肺复苏循环恢复患者的预后因素。结果:回顾56例心肺复苏循环恢复患者病例, logistic回归分析发现血清淀粉酶、血糖和复苏时间对早期评估心肺复苏循环恢复患者的预后有意义。结论:复苏后1小时内血清淀粉酶、血糖和复苏时间对早期评估心肺复苏循环恢复患者的预后有价值。