CAO Xu , WANG Wuwei , JIANG Hongwei , ZHOU Qiang , CHEN Xin , WANG Rui
  • Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University/ Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing, 210006, P. R. China;
WANG Rui, Email: wr1582@njmu.edu.cn
Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery; readmission; risk factor; prediction model
10.7507/1007-4848.202412048
Export PDF Favorites Scan Get Citation

Abstract Full text Figures/Tables References Cited by

Objective To investigate the factors associated with unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in adult patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to develop and validate a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients who underwent isolated CABG at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2020 and June 2024. Data from January 2020 to August 2023 were used as a training set, and data from September 2023 to June 2024 were used as a validation set. In the training set, patients were divided into the readmission group and the non-readmission group based on whether they had unplanned readmission within 30 days post-discharge. Clinical data between the two groups were compared, and logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for unplanned readmission. A risk prediction model and a nomogram were constructed, and internal validation was performed to assess the model’s performance. The validation set was used for external validation. Results A total of 2 460 patients were included, comprising 1 787 males and 673 females, with a median age of 70 (34, 89) years. The training set included 1,932 patients, and the validation set included 528 patients. In the training set, there were statistically significant differences between the readmission group (79 patients) and the non-readmission group (1 853 patients) in terms of gender, age, carotid artery stenosis, history of myocardial infarction, preoperative anemia, and heart failure classification (NYHA) (P<0.05). The main causes of readmission were poor wound healing, postoperative pulmonary infections, and new-onset atrial fibrillation. Logistic regression analysis revealed that female sex [OR=1.659, 95%CI (1.022, 2.692), P=0.041], age [OR=1.042, 95%CI (1.011, 1.075), P=0.008], carotid artery stenosis [OR=1.680, 95%CI (1.130, 2.496), P=0.010], the first ICU stay duration [OR=1.359, 95%CI (1.195, 1.545), P<0.001], and the second ICU admission [OR=4.142, 95%CI (1.507, 11.383), P=0.006] were independent risk factors for unplanned readmission. In the internal validation, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806, and the net benefit rate of the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) was >3%. In the external validation, the AUC was 0.732, and the DCA net benefit rate ranged from 3% to 48%. Conclusion Females, age, carotid artery stenosis, duration of first ICU stay, and second ICU admission are independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after isolated CABG. The constructed nomogram demonstrates good predictive power.

Copyright © the editorial department of Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery of West China Medical Publisher. All rights reserved