ObjectiveTo identify the risk factors of bone metastasis in breast cancer and construct a predictive model. MethodsThe data of breast cancer patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the SEER*Stat database. Additionally, the data of breast cancer patients diagnosed with distant metastasis in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from 2021 to 2023 were collected. The patients from the SEER database were randomly divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets using R software, and the breast cancer patients from the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University were included in the validation set. The univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify risk factors of breast cancer bone metastasis. A nomogram predictive model was then constructed based on these factors. The predictive effect of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. ResultsThe study included 8 637 breast cancer patients, with 5 998 in the training set and 2 639 (including 68 patients in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University) in the validation set. The statistical differences in the race and N stage were observed between the training and validation sets (P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that being of white race, having a low histological grade (Ⅰ–Ⅱ), positive estrogen and progesterone receptors status, negative human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, and non-undergoing surgery for the primary breast cancer site increased the risk of breast cancer bone metastasis (P<0.05). The nomogram based on these risk factors showed that the AUC (95% CI) of the training and validation sets was 0.676 (0.533, 0.744) and 0.690 (0.549, 0.739), respectively. The internal calibration using 1 000 Bootstrap samples demonstrated that the calibration curves for both sets closely approximated the ideal 45-degree reference line. The decision curve analysis indicated a stronger clinical utility within a certain probability threshold range. ConclusionsThis study constructs a nomogram predictive model based on factors related to the risk of breast cancer bone metastasis, which demonstrates a good consistency between actual and predicted outcomes in both training and validation sets. The nomogram shows a stronger clinical utility, but further analysis is needed to understand the reasons of the lower differentiation of nomogram in both sets.
With the increasing availability of clinical and biomedical big data, machine learning is being widely used in scientific research and academic papers. It integrates various types of information to predict individual health outcomes. However, deficiencies in reporting key information have gradually emerged. These include issues like data bias, model fairness across different groups, and problems with data quality and applicability. Maintaining predictive accuracy and interpretability in real-world clinical settings is also a challenge. This increases the complexity of safely and effectively applying predictive models to clinical practice. To address these problems, TRIPOD+AI (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis+artificial intelligence) introduces a reporting standard for machine learning models. It is based on TRIPOD and aims to improve transparency, reproducibility, and health equity. These improvements enhance the quality of machine learning model applications. Currently, research on prediction models based on machine learning is rapidly increasing. To help domestic readers better understand and apply TRIPOD+AI, we provide examples and interpretations. We hope this will support researchers in improving the quality of their reports.
Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (IPH) is one of the common complications of surgery, which can lead to a series of adverse consequences. In recent years, with the deepening development of precision medicine concepts, establishing predictive models to identify the risk of IPH early and implementing targeted interventions has become an important research direction for perioperative management. This article reviews the current research status of IPH predictive models in adults, focusing on the research design, modeling methods, selection of prediction factors, and prediction performance of different predictive models. It also explores the advantages and limitations of existing models, aiming to provide references for the selection, application, and optimization of relevant predictive models.
ObjectiveTo analyze the prognostic factors of patients with bacterial bloodstream infection sepsis and to identify independent risk factors related to death, so as to potentially develop one predictive model for clinical practice. Method A non-intervention retrospective study was carried out. The relative data of adult sepsis patients with positive bacterial blood culture (including central venous catheter tip culture) within 48 hours after admission were collected from the electronic medical database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019, including demographic characters, vital signs, laboratory data, etc. The patients were divided into a survival group and a death group according to in-hospital outcome. The risk factors were analyzed and the prediction model was established by means of multi-factor logistics regression. The discriminatory ability of the model was shown by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The visualization of the predictive model was drawn by nomogram and the model was also verified by internal validation methods with R language. Results A total of 1189 patients were retrieved, and 563 qualified patients were included in the study, including 398 in the survival group and 165 in the death group. Except gender and pathogen type, other indicators yielded statistical differences in single factor comparison between the survival group and the death group. Independent risk factors included in the logistic regression prediction model were: age [P=0.000, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.949 - 0.982], heart rate (P=0.000, 95%CI 0.966 - 0.987), platelet count (P=0.009, 95%CI 1.001 - 1.006), fibrinogen (P=0.036, 95%CI 1.010 - 1.325), serum potassium ion (P=0.005, 95%CI 0.426 - 0.861), serum chloride ion (P=0.054, 95%CI 0.939 - 1.001), aspartate aminotransferase (P=0.03, 95%CI 0.996 - 1.000), serum globulin (P=0.025, 95%CI 1.006 - 1.086), and mean arterial pressure (P=0.250, 95%CI 0.995 - 1.021). The AUC of the prediction model was 0.779 (95%CI 0.737 - 0.821). The prediction efficiency of the total score of the model's nomogram was good in the 210 - 320 interval, and mean absolute error was 0.011, mean squared error was 0.00018. Conclusions The basic vital signs within 48 h admitting into hospital, as well those homeostasis disordering index indicated by coagulation, liver and renal dysfunction are highly correlated with the prognosis of septic patients with bacterial bloodstream infection. Early warning should be set in order to achieve early detection and rescue patients’ lives.
Objective To analyze the influencing factors for postoperative anastomotic leak (AL) in carcinoma of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction and construct a nomogram predictive model. Methods The patients who underwent radical esophagectomy at Jinling Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University School of Medicine from January 2018 to June 2020 were included in this study. Relevant variables were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram was then developed to predict the risk factors associated with postoperative AL. The predictive performance of the nomogram was validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results A total of 468 patients with carcinoma of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction were included in the study, comprising 354 males and 114 females, with a mean age of (62.8±7.2) years. The tumors were predominantly located in the middle or lower esophagus, and 51 (10.90%) patients experienced postoperative AL. Univariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age, body mass index (BMI), tumor location, preoperative albumin levels, diabetes mellitus, anastomosis technique, anastomosis site, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were potentially associated with AL (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, BMI, tumor location, diabetes mellitus, anastomosis technique, and CRP levels as independent risk factors for AL (P<0.05). A nomogram was developed based on the findings from the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.803, indicating a strong concordance between the actual observations and the predicted outcomes. Furthermore, decision curve analysis demonstrated that the newly established nomogram holds significant value for clinical decision-making. Conclusion The predictive model for postoperative AL in patients with carcinoma of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction demonstrates strong predictive validity and is essential for guiding clinical monitoring, early detection, and preventive strategies.
Objective To clarify the specific clinical predictive efficacy of CT and serological indicators for the progression of connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) to progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF). Methods Patients who were diagnosed with CTD-ILD in Chest Hospital of Zhengzhou University Between January 2020 and December 2021 were recruited in the study. Clinical data and high-resolution CT results of the patients were collected. The patients were divided into a stable group and a progressive group (PPF group) based on whether PPF occurred during follow-up. COX proportional hazards regression was used to identify risk factors affecting the progression of CTD-ILD to PPF, and a risk prediction model was established based on the results of the COX regression model. The predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated through internal cross-validation. Results A total of 194 patients diagnosed with CTD-ILD were enrolled based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Among them, 34 patients progressed to PPF during treatment, and 160 patients did not progress. The variables obtained at lambda$1se in LASSO regression were ANCA associated vasculitis, lymphocytes, albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and serum ferritin. Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that the extent of fibrosis, serum ferritin, albumin, and age were independent risk factors for the progression of CTD-ILD to PPF (all P<0.05). A prediction model was established based on the results of the multivariate COX regression analysis. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve at 6 months, 9 months, and 12 months was 0.989, 0.931, and 0.797, respectively, indicating that the model has good discrimination and sensitivity, and good predictive efficacy. The calibration curve showed a good overlap between predicted and actual values. Conclusions The extent of fibrosis, serum ferritin, albumin, and age are independent risk factors for the progression of CTD-ILD to PPF. The model established based on this and externally validated shows good predictive efficacy.
ObjectiveTo construct a predictive model for acute kidney injury (AKI) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) based on uromodulin (UMOD) and tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6). MethodsPatients undergoing CABG treatment at Tianjin Chest Hospital from 2022 to 2024 were prospectively enrolled. Based on whether they developed AKI post-surgery, patients were divided into the an AKI group and a non-AKI group. Differences in UMOD, TRAF6, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), β-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG), and SCr clearance rate at different time points were compared between the two groups. Predictive models for AKI after CABG were constructed at various time points, and the predictive efficacy of the models for AKI was analyzed. ResultsA total of 70 patients were included, with 22 in the AKI group [13 males and 9 females, aged 55-72 (67.91±4.91) years] and 48 in the non-AKI group [32 males and 16 females, aged 56-72 (68.07±4.67) years]. The UMOD levels in the AKI group were lower than those in the non-AKI group at various time points including before surgery (t=34.283, P<0.001), postoperative 2 h (t=29.590, P<0.001), 4 h (t=30.705, P<0.001), 8 h (t=26.620, P<0.001), 12 h (t=29.671, P<0.001), and 24 h (t=31.397, P<0.001). The TRAF6 levels in the AKI group were higher than those in the non-AKI group at all these time points (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that higher levels of TRAF6, BUN, SCr, NAG, and lower levels of UMOD and SCr clearance rate were risk factors for AKI after CABG (P<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the predictive model at postoperative 12 h was significantly higher than that of the remaining models. The risk of AKI after CABG was: log (Y)=12.333−1.582×UMOD+1.270×TRAF6+1.356×BUN+1.356×SCr+1.355×NAG−1.254×SCr clearance rate. ConclusionIn the occurrence process of AKI after CABG, TRAF6 exacerbates renal injury by activating inflammatory signals and promoting cell apoptosis, while UMOD alleviates renal injury by regulating renal tubular function and protecting renal tubular epithelial cells. Through the simulation analysis of the two biomarkers combined with renal injury indicators at postoperative 12 h, the occurrence of AKI after CABG can be effectively predicted.
ObjectiveTo analyze the relevant risk factors affecting postoperative relapse-free survival (RFS) in the primary gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and develop a Nomogram predictive model of postoperative RFS for the GIST patients. MethodsThe patients diagnosed with GIST by postoperative pathology from January 2011 to December 2020 at the First Hospital of Lanzhou University and Gansu Provincial People’s Hospital were collected, and then were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3 using R software function. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify the risk factors affecting the RFS for the GIST patients after surgery, and then based on this, the Nomogram predictive model was constructed to predict the probability of RFS at 3- and 5-year after surgery for the patients with GIST. The effectiveness of the Nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), and calibration curve, and the clinical utility of the Nomogram and the modified National Institutes of Health (M-NIH) classification standard was evaluated using the decision curve analysis (DCA). ResultsA total of 454 patients were included, including 317 in the training set and 137 in the validation set. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the tumor location, tumor size, differentiation degree, American Joint Committee onCancer TNM stage, mitotic rate, CD34 expression, treatment method, number of lymph node detection, and targeted drug treatment time were the influencing factors of postoperative RFS for the GIST patients (P<0.05). The Nomogram predictive model was constructed based on the influencing factors. The C-index of the Nomogram in the training set and validation set were 0.731 [95%CI (0.679, 0.783)] and 0.685 [95%CI (0.647, 0.722)], respectively. The AUC (95%CI) of distinguishing the RFS at 3- and 5-year after surgery were 0.764 (0.681, 0.846) and 0.724 (0.661, 0.787) in the training set and 0.749 (0.625, 0.872) and 0.739 (0.647, 0.832) in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curve results showed that a good consistency of the 3-year and 5-year recurrence free survival rates between the predicted results and the actual results in the training set, while which was slightly poor in the validation set. There was a higher net benefit for the 3-year recurrence free survival rate after GIST surgery when the threshold probability range was 0.19 to 0.57. When the threshold probability range was 0.44 to 0.83, there was a higher net benefit for the 5-year recurrence free survival rate after GIST surgery. And within the threshold probability ranges, the net benefit of the Nomogram was better than the M-NIH classification system at the corresponding threshold probability. ConclusionsThe results of this study suggest that the patients with GIST located in the other sites (mainly including the esophagus, duodenum, and retroperitoneum), with tumor size greater than 5 cm, poor or undifferentiated differentiation, mitotic rate lower than 5/50 HPF, negative CD34 expression, ablation treatment, number of lymph nodes detected more than 4, and targeted drug treatment time less than 3 months need to closely pay attentions to the postoperative recurrence. The discrimination and clinical applicability of the Nomogram predictive model are good.
As the volume of medical research using large language models (LLM) surges, the need for standardized and transparent reporting standards becomes increasingly critical. In January 2025, Nature Medicine published statement titled by TRIPOD-LLM reporting guideline for studies using large language models. This represents the first comprehensive reporting framework specifically tailored for studies that develop prediction models based on LLM. It comprises a checklist with 19 main items (encompassing 50 sub-items), a flowchart, and an abstract checklist (containing 12 items). This article provides an interpretation of TRIPOD-LLM’s development methods, primary content, scope, and the specific details of its items. The goal is to help researchers, clinicians, editors, and healthcare decision-makers to deeply understand and correctly apply TRIPOD-LLM, thereby improving the quality and transparency of LLM medical research reporting and promoting the standardized and ethical integration of LLM into healthcare.
ObjectiveTo explore the predictive value of a simplified signs scoring system for the severity and prognosis of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods Clinical data of 1 605 confirmed patients with COVID-19 from January to May 2020 in 45 hospitals of Sichuan and Hubei Provinces were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into a mild group (n=1150, 508 males, average age of 51.32±16.26 years) and a severe group (n=455, 248 males, average age of 57.63±16.16 years). ResultsAge, male proportion, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure in the severe group were higher than those in the mild group (P<0.05). Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) were lower than those in the mild group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, respiratory rate, SpO2, and GCS were independent risk factors for severe patients with COVID-19. Based on the above indicators, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the simplified signs scoring system for predicting severe patients was 0.822, which was higher than that of the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score and modified early warning score (MEWS, 0.629 and 0.631, P<0.001). The ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve of the simplified signs scoring system for predicting death was 0.796, higher than that of qSOFA score and MEWS score (0.710 and 0.706, P<0.001). ConclusionAge, respiratory rate, SpO2 and GCS are independent risk factors for severe patients with COVID-19. The simplified signs scoring system based on these four indicators may be used to predict patient's risk of severe illness or early death.